A team of m players, numbered from 1 to m, puts on a set of a m shirts, similarly numbered from 1 to m. The players change in a hurry, so that the shirts are assigned to them randomly, one to each player.
Let Ci be the random variable that takes the value 1 if player i is wearing shirt i, and 0 otherwise. Show that E(C1)=m1 and find Var(C1) and Cov(C1,C2).
Let N=C1+C2+⋯+Cm be the random variable whose value is the number of players who are wearing the correct shirt. Show that E(N)=Var(N)=1.
Explain why a Normal approximation to N is not likely to be appropriate for any m, but that a Poisson approximation might be reasonable.
In the case m=4, find, by listing equally likely possibilities or otherwise, the probability that no player is wearing the correct shirt and verify that an appropriate Poisson approximation to N gives this probability with a relative error of about 2%. [Use e≈210072.]