My two friends, who shall remain nameless, but whom I shall refer to as P and Q, both told me this afternoon that there is a body in my fridge. I'm not sure what to make of this, because P tells the truth with a probability of only p, while Q (independently) tells the truth with probability q. I haven't looked in the fridge for some time, so if you had asked me this morning, I would have said that there was just as likely to be a body in it as not. Clearly, in view of what P and Q told me, I must revise this estimate. Explain carefully why my new estimate of the probability of there being a body in the fridge should be 1−p−q+2pqpq. I have now been to look in the fridge, and there is indeed a body in it; perhaps more than one. It seems to me that only my enemy A, or my enemy B, or (with a bit of luck) both A and B could be in my fridge, and this morning I would have judged these three possibilities to be equally likely. But tonight I asked P and Q separately whether or not A was in the fridge, and they each said that he was. What should be my new estimate of the probability that both A and B are in my fridge?
Of course, I tell the truth always.